Weighted Pipeline

What is Weighted Pipeline?

Weighted pipeline applies a probability to each eligible open deal and sums the resulting values. It provides a risk-adjusted view of a commercial pipeline without assuming that every opportunity will close.

The probability policy may be stage-based, historically calibrated, manually assigned, or produced by another documented model. The values are meaningful only when the stage definitions, deal-value basis, currency conversion, eligibility rules, and probability source are clear and maintained consistently.

A weighted amount is not a realized financial event. A deal can change stage, value, timing, or outcome. Even after it is won, billing, revenue recognition, payment terms, refunds, disputes, and collection determine what eventually becomes revenue or cash.

How current RunwayCal behavior is bounded

The current calculation service recognizes Prospect, Qualified, Proposal, Negotiation, Closed Won, and Closed Lost stage values and supports configured weights. Open pipeline excludes records treated as won, lost, or churned. A pending deal without an explicit stage uses the product fallback rather than disappearing from the open-pipeline measure. These are implementation rules, not universal sales-stage definitions.

Deal value needs a stated basis

RunwayCal uses a common annualized contract-value basis for open and weighted pipeline comparisons. Monthly recurring amounts are normalized across 12 months; one-time, annual, and milestone records use contract value; supported currency conversion rules apply. That basis is neither accounting revenue nor cash, and a revenue-stream container is not treated as a contract value.

Probability still needs judgment

• Stage-based

  Each defined stage receives a documented default or configured probability.

• Historically calibrated

  Observed conversion can inform weights when the sample, segment, and period are relevant.

• Manually assigned

  A reviewer may assign a probability, but the basis and owner should be visible.

• Timing-aware follow-through

  Expected close, billing, and collection dates must be reviewed separately from the weighted value.

Why it matters

Raw pipeline can overstate the commercial opportunity by treating every open deal as equally likely. Weighted pipeline makes the probability policy visible and can support a more disciplined review of concentration, timing, and sales assumptions.

It remains an estimate. Leadership should compare the weighted view with unweighted pipeline, won deal value, realized receipts, stage movement, calibration history, and the cash plan rather than treating the aggregate as expected cash.

General formula

• Eligible open deals under a stated inclusion policy
• A consistent deal-value and currency basis
• Assigned probabilities with a documented source
• Close, billing, and collection timing reviewed separately

General formula

Weighted pipeline = Σ (Eligible deal value × Assigned probability)

Illustrative weighted pipeline

How RunwayCal helps

Common mistakes

• 1Using one universal probability for every company, segment, or stage without calibration.
• 2Including closed-won, closed-lost, or churned records in open weighted pipeline.
• 3Mixing monthly recurring, annual, one-time, and foreign-currency values without a common basis.
• 4Calling weighted pipeline revenue, MRR, ARR, cash, or a guaranteed forecast.
• 5Ignoring close, invoice, recognition, and collection timing after the weighted calculation.