Weighted Pipeline
A forecast metric where Pipeline deals count at 50% probability and Won deals at 100%. Answers: if half your pipeline closes, how much revenue will you have?
Weighted pipeline applies 50% probability to Pipeline deals and 100% to Won deals.
What is Weighted Pipeline?
Weighted pipeline applies probability weights to your deal stages. Pipeline deals (not yet closed) count at 50%. Won deals count at 100%. The result answers a practical question: if half your pipeline closes, how does your cash change?
The Weighted Pipeline KPI connects deals directly to survival. "If pipeline closes, runway extends by X months" translates sales activity into cash impact. This is more useful than raw pipeline value, which assumes every deal closes.
Why it matters
Raw pipeline numbers create false optimism. $200K in pipeline doesn't mean $200K in revenue — it means $200K if everything closes. Weighted pipeline gives you a realistic midpoint: if half closes, here's your cash impact.
For founders with limited runway, this metric answers the question that matters: will closing deals buy me enough time?
Formula
Weighted Pipeline = (Pipeline deals × 50%) + (Won deals × 100%)
Example
Pipeline: $80,000 across 4 deals. Won: $40,000 across 2 clients. Weighted Pipeline = ($80,000 × 0.5) + $40,000 = $80,000. If half the pipeline closes, expected new revenue = $40,000.
How RunwayCal helps
RunwayCal's Weighted Pipeline KPI applies 50% weight to Pipeline deals and 100% to Won deals. It shows how closing pipeline would extend runway and feeds into cash position forecasting when deals move to Won.
Common mistakes
- 1Using raw pipeline value without probability weighting
- 2Applying the same close probability to all deal stages
- 3Not connecting weighted pipeline to runway impact
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Connect your pipeline to runway
RunwayCal's Weighted Pipeline KPI shows how closing deals would extend your runway.
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