Deal Risk Score
Deal Risk Score is a RunwayCal-specific rules-based diagnostic that combines supported payment-speed, revenue-concentration, and outstanding-exposure inputs into review context.
The Low, Medium, or High label supports human review. It is not a probability of payment, a credit rating, or an automatic decision about the customer or deal.
Deal risk in RunwayCal helps a person inspect where concentration, collection behavior, and outstanding exposure may put pressure on cash planning. The label explains context; it does not predict what the customer will do.
Read the inputs before reading the badge
Each signal answers a different question. The combined label points to a review, not a verdict.
How much supported revenue context is associated with the customer
How landed receipts compare with the organization's own collection history
Expected or due value that has not become received cash
Exposure considered relative to supported monthly burn context
A person still decides what to investigate and what action, if any, is appropriate.
What is Deal Risk Score?
Deal Risk Score is a RunwayCal-specific diagnostic rather than a standardized finance, accounting, or credit metric. The current product combines supported payment-speed, revenue-concentration, and outstanding-amount context relative to monthly burn into a Low, Medium, or High label.
Each input describes a different form of exposure. Concentration shows dependency on one customer. Collection speed reflects observed receipt timing for supported won or active deals. Outstanding amount identifies money not yet received. Monthly burn provides operating context for the size of that exposure.
The label is deterministic under the configured rules and available data. It does not estimate a probability of default, predict a late payment, determine creditworthiness, or decide whether a customer relationship is safe. Missing, incomplete, or newly recorded history can limit the meaning of the result.
Expected collection is not received cash
A deal amount, invoice expectation, payment schedule, or modeled collection remains expected until a receipt is recorded. A risk review should preserve that distinction.
Scenarios can test what happens if timing changes, but a hypothetical delay or receipt should not rewrite the canonical record. The current cash position and the scenario result answer different questions.
Deal Risk versus credit risk
Credit risk generally concerns the possibility that a counterparty will fail to meet an obligation. Formal credit assessment can use financial statements, bureau data, collateral, legal rights, industry evidence, and underwriting policy.
RunwayCal's Deal Risk Score is narrower. It organizes supported internal planning signals and should not be presented as a credit score, underwriting model, or legal conclusion about the customer.
Deal Risk versus collection timing
Collection timing describes when cash was expected and when it was received. It is one input to deal-risk context, not the complete assessment.
A large, concentrated customer with an on-time history can create a different exposure from a smaller customer with a delayed receipt. Neither pattern proves what will happen next.
Questions the diagnostic can prompt
How concentrated is the supported revenue context?
Identify the customer share without applying a universal safe or unsafe percentage.
What has actually been received?
Separate landed receipts from expected, scheduled, overdue, or outstanding amounts.
How large is the exposure in operating context?
Review the amount beside current burn and obligations without claiming it directly determines runway.
What assumption deserves a scenario?
Test an explicit timing or amount change while keeping the hypothetical result separate from actuals.
Why it matters
A customer can matter to cash planning for more than one reason. The relationship may represent a large share of revenue, payment may arrive later than the organization's observed pattern, or an outstanding amount may be material beside current operating needs.
Bringing the signals together can help finance decide what to inspect first. It should not turn a rules-based badge into a prediction, accusation, or automated collection instruction. Contract terms, customer communication, dispute context, delivery obligations, and human judgment remain essential.
What goes into it
- Supported customer revenue concentration context
- Observed collection speed from eligible deals and landed receipts
- Outstanding amount that has not become received cash
- Supported monthly burn context
- The current product rules and completeness of the source records
Illustrative review, not a scoring threshold
A customer represents a material share of supported revenue context, has a slower observed collection pattern than the organization's own baseline, and has an outstanding amount that matters beside monthly burn.
RunwayCal may surface a higher review label under its rules. The label does not say the customer will pay late or default. Finance opens the deal and receipt history, checks the expected-versus-received state, and decides whether a collection conversation or timing scenario is warranted.
How RunwayCal helps
Revenue Intelligence presents the product-specific Low, Medium, or High diagnostic and the supported factors behind it. It keeps Modeled, Committed, Expected, and Received revenue states distinct and routes the reviewer toward the owning workflow.
RunwayCal does not use the score as a probability of payment or an automatic recommendation. A person reviews the source deal, receipts, timing, concentration, cash context, and any scenario before deciding what to do.
Common mistakes
- 1Presenting the RunwayCal-specific label as a standardized credit or finance metric.
- 2Publishing fixed concentration or delay thresholds as universal risk rules.
- 3Treating expected collections as received cash.
- 4Assuming a deterministic label predicts payment or replaces human review.
- 5Letting a scenario value alter the current deal or receipt record.
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Review the signals behind the label
Keep concentration, collection timing, outstanding exposure, and received cash visible before deciding what needs attention.
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