MRR movement + churn + expansion + contraction + retention + seasonality
↓Recurring revenue engineRevenue planning and revenue modeling
Build the revenue plan from what actually drives the business.
Build revenue from the assumptions the business actually uses, then see how changes in customers, pricing, volume, or timing affect the plan before treating any of it as realized revenue.
- Drivers stay explicit
- Modeled stays separate
- Decisions stay human
Operating drivers
Stores12
×Traffic1,500
×Conversion3.2%
×Avg basket$74
Modeled revenue$42,624 / month
Financial planCarry the modeled outlook into planning
Illustrative model logic, not product UI.
Chapter 01
A target is not yet a revenue plan.
A top-line target says where the business wants to land. A revenue model shows what must be true before that target shapes hiring, spend, or runway expectations.
Recurring and driver-based models turn inputs the team can inspect and change into a monthly revenue outlook.
Chapter 02
Keep every revenue state in its proper place.
A target, modeled revenue, committed revenue, an actual result, cash received, and a scenario are not interchangeable. Keeping them separate stops an assumption from appearing as money earned or cash already received.
Planned timing shows when the model expects revenue. It does not confirm when the customer will pay or when cash will arrive.
ModeledWhat explicit assumptions producePlanning layer
CommittedWhat has been contracted or won where applicableCommercial context
RealizedWhat has been recorded as actual revenueActual result
Cash receivedWhat has actually landedCash movement
A target is not a plan. Planned revenue is not realized revenue. Realized revenue is not cash received.
Chapter 03
Model the drivers that fit the business.
Recurring businesses can work from MRR movement, retention, and seasonality. Operating businesses can plan from capacity, visits, transactions, units, covers, or loads.
The point is to make each business model visible, not force every company into the same equation.
Billable units × utilization × daily rate × working days
↓Modeled revenueStores × traffic × conversion × average basket
↓Modeled revenueCovers × average check
↓Modeled revenueHealthcare
Providers × slots × fill rate × payer-mix rate
Manufacturing
Minimum of orders, line capacity and labor capacity × unit price
Logistics
Loads × revenue per load × utilization
General
Units × utilization × revenue per unit
A restaurant and a SaaS company do not produce revenue through the same operating logic.
Stores12
×Traffic / store1,500
×Conversion3.2%→3.8%
×Avg basket$74
Modeled monthly revenue$42,624→$50,616+$7,992 from one changed assumption
Illustrative values show model logic, not a customer forecast.
Chapter 04
Build and retain the model in Planner.
Revenue models are saved to the organization, with one active at a time. Its assumptions and monthly projection carry into planning.
Availability and model-count limits depend on plan. A projection remains modeled, even when committed recurring Deals add context.
Verified product structureRevenue model in Planner
Verified product structureSaved inputs → computed projection → active modelAssumptions remain visible beside the computed outlook
Chapter 05
Read the outlook as a consequence of assumptions.
The projection shows what the current model produces. Change a driver and the outlook changes, keeping its operating logic visible.
Forecast-versus-actual review shows whether plan and recorded results move together without turning modeled values into reality.
Base assumptions
12 stores · 3.2% conversion · $74 basket
↓$42,624 modeled / monthChange one driver
Conversion moves from 3.2% to 3.8%
↓$50,616 revised modeled / monthObserved separatelyRecorded results provide the reality checkRealized results do not inherit the modeled value.
Illustrative assumptions, not a live forecast.
Chapter 06
Connect the revenue outlook to the decision.
Review the modeled outlook beside cash, commitments, hiring, and runway before relying on it.
RunwayCal provides context. It does not choose the growth target or decide which assumption the team should accept.
Chapter 07
Test a different path without changing the plan.
Test a different growth assumption in Scenarios. Its cash and runway consequences remain separate from the active model and recorded results.
Verified product structureRevenue scenario comparison
Active modelHypothetical adjustmentSeparate scenario outcome
Chapter 08
Change the driver. See what it changes next.
Change a customer, price, volume or timing assumption and see how the plan moves before changing the operating plan.
A revenue target becomes useful when the drivers underneath it are visible.